Trade-up EV calculator
Pick ten inputs of one rarity. The result is the average outcome over many contracts, after the seller fee. One contract can land far from it.
Inputs
| # | Skin | Float | Price ($) |
|---|
Outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Wear (float) | Skinport ask |
|---|
How this is worked out
Valve does not publish the rules, so this follows the model most guides describe. Each input gives its collection a tenth of the odds, then one next-tier skin from that collection is drawn evenly. Each input's float is scaled within its own skin's range, the ten are averaged, and the average is mapped onto the output skin's range. Some calculators use a different odds model when collections have different numbers of outcomes, so test a contract before trusting the figure.
Not covered: five Coverts into a knife or gloves, added in October 2025. Which knives each collection can give is not in the public dataset in a form this page can rely on. Skin and collection data: ByMykel/CSGO-API (MIT licence), built 2026-11-04.
Information only, not financial advice. This site never places trades, logs in to any market, holds funds or asks for Steam details.